There have been many predictions about the progress of the second phase of the covid pandemic. With the daily covid cases declining, the question on everybody’s mind is: have we crossed the peak? If yes, when was it?
An analysis of covid data from the Bruhat
Between May 1 and 7, 1,51,722 cases were reported. Since then, there has been a decline in daily cases. In the week between May 15 and 21, 74,532 cases were recorded.
Going by this data, the peak week in Bengaluru was May 1-7.
Many experts were predicting that the covid peak would come between the first and second week of May. An analysis of the covid scores in May shows that the City recorded 19,353 on May 1 which gradually peaked to 23,706 on May 6 and since then there has been a decline in cases. So, as per this data, Bengaluru could have reached its peak on May 6.
However, the arrival of this covid peak is only based on the covid numbers recorded by the BBMP war room. This should also take into account the decrease in tests and the concerns over it. Another factor to consider could be the total positivity rate (TPR). The city’s TPR rate was the highest on May 3 at 55 per cent. Since then it has been sliding and the current TPR is 33.83 per cent.
However, now one needs to see whether the May 6th peak was an actual peak or an apparent peak. A health expert said, “We often compare the first and second covid waves. During last year, the lockdown was announced during the initial phases when covid cases were few. So, when the lockdown was lifted in June, the cases continued to surge and the peak was seen in September-October.
After that, the cases started decreasing. However, during the second wave, we have imposed a lockdown when the cases were about to hit the peak. Now we need to see if the cases will stabilise after lockdown is lifted. This is the key to fighting covid. The big challenge before the state government is how to lift the lockdown. Experts have suggested that the lockdown should be lifted in a graded manner.
Test more for sure
Meanwhile, health experts are batting to increase testing. Currently, only half of the testing (less than 50,000 a day) is being done in Bengaluru as against 1.05 lakh tests in April. However, there are concerns over testing itself. Sanjeev Mysore, convenor of Jeevan Raksha said, “Mysuru Deputy Commissioner